The UK government’s plan to ban the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 dominated the news and media headlines this summer.

Commentators speculated on the death of the internal combustion engine. Around the country drivers were contemplating the potential reduced value of their vehicles.

The move to improve air quality is part of the government’s ‘UK Plan for Tackling Roadside Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations’. Next year the government will publish a further comprehensive ‘Clean Air Strategy’, addressing how they plan to reduce other sources of air pollution.

What does the 2040 vehicle ban really mean?

Whilst the headlines may lead people to believe that 2040 will see all petrol and diesel cars and vans removed from the streets; the reality is that the government ban only covers the sale of NEW petrol or diesel models. This means that conventional petrol or diesel cars and vans bought and on the road before this deadline, will still be able to be used.

Similarly, Hybrid vehicles (which combine a conventional engine with an electric motor) will still be sold after 2040. So this ban won’t mean the end of new petrol- or diesel- engine models in car showrooms and forecourts of van dealers.

The rise of alternate fuelled vehicles

22 years can be a long time in motor vehicle technology. Looking at the difference between vehicles from 1995 and now, its easy to anticipate that technology developments will accelerate even faster in the future. It’s therefore likely that things will be very different in 2040, compared to 2017 – without any government intervention.

Figures released from The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) early this year, showed that registrations of alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs) have grown more than threefold over the past five years.

This includes; hybrids, plug-in hybrids, plus fully electric and hydrogen powered vehicles. The choice for customers is also expanding. Currently over 80 different alternatively fuelled cars and vans are available to British buyers, from city cars to SUVs, saloons, and sports cars.

Whilst demand for AFVs is growing, it is clearly still at a low level compared to petrol and diesel vehicles. Customer apprehension is currently restricting further growth. Factors for concern include; the high price of AFVs compared to their conventional counterparts, the restricted travel range of fully electric vehicles before the need to recharge, and the lack of available infrastructure (hydrogen fuel stations and electric charging points). These all prey on the minds of car buyers.

Improvements in all these factors will no doubt be achieved in future years, leading to a greater adoption of AFVs. However getting the public onside is not the only challenge.

Some bumps in the road to a green future

If the government go ahead with their plans for 2040, experts have warned that a large-scale change in the UK to electric power would place unprecedented strains on the National Grid. It is reported that peak demand for electricity could increase by 50%, against a current peak of 61 GW.

The extra electricity needed would require the equivalent total power output of ten new Hinckley Point C nuclear power stations. This would cost around £200 Bn, based on current cost estimates for the construction of Hinckley Point.

Currently electric vehicles account for just 4% of car sales. Concerns have also been raised about whether Britain will have enough charging points for the new generation of cars. Today there are 13,000 electric vehicle charging points in publicly accessible locations. It is predicted that the number of such points will increase to 80,000 by 2025.

Many charging points will be on the car parks of supermarkets, railway stations and shopping centres. But, a large number  will be required in domestic streets. It is currently unclear as to who would foot the bill for such infrastructure.

Another issue is likely to be the lack of the rare minerals required for the large-scale future production of batteries. Battery makers are struggling to secure supplies of the key ingredients required in these large power packs; mainly cobalt and lithium. Currently the plans of both battery and vehicle manufacturers rest on the mining sector finding more deposits of these precious minerals.

The impact on the turbo aftermarket

It’s difficult to accurately predict the likely impact on the turbo aftermarket. Working on the basis that conventional petrol and diesel vehicles could be on sale up to 2039, and assuming an average 15-year vehicle lifespan, conventional vehicles would still be around into the 2050’s.

Also, if hybrids using turbo assisted internal combustion engines alongside electric motors remain popular, the need for turbo replacement / repairs is highly likely to continue towards the 22^nd century.

The adoption of hydrogen internal combustion engines could be the ideal solution from many perspectives. Hydrogen engines burn fuel in the same manner that petrol engines do, and require relatively minor engineering design modifications from current engines. They are also refuelled in similarly to current petrol / diesel vehicles, so it would seem relatively simple to adapt the existing fuel station infrastructure.

Typically, hydrogen engines are designed to use about twice as much air to enable complete combustion. Unfortunately, this reduces the engine’s power output to about half that of a similarly sized petrol engine. To make up for the power loss, hydrogen engines are usually equipped with turbochargers or superchargers.

So, whilst it’s tough to precisely forecast exactly what will happen, there are enough indications to show that the turbo aftermarket should remain healthy for many years to come.

Also see; How the internal combustion engine is being refined in 2017.

 

Whilst opinion about remanufacturing has changed significantly in recent years, there remains a common misconception that remanufacturing within the automotive industry belongs in the same category as ‘reconditioning’ and ‘repair’. Here, we look at what remanufacturing really means.

What is remanufacturing?

“Remanufacturing is the process of returning a used product to at least its original performance with a warranty that is equivalent to or better than that of the newly manufactured product.”

The Centre for Remanufacturing & Reuse (CRR)

 

The process involved in the remanufacturing of automotive parts is very similar to that involved in the production of the original component. The only real difference is that remanufacturing involves the restoration of a used component to its original condition, rather than the production of a brand-new part.

Often remanufacturing (or reman) means bringing the products back to the OE specification, using genuine parts and test equipment. At times aftermarket design improvements mean that remanufactured parts often outperform the OE originals as any design defects can be engineered out.

From a customer viewpoint, the reman product can be considered the same as a new product, providing a more attractively priced alternative to the original. In the case of engines, the price difference between a new and a reman engine can be substantial (with reman costs typically 20% – 30% lower than new).

The benefits of remanufacturing parts

In all instances, remanufactured parts can provide value for money and will perform in the same way as the original parts and last just as long. They provide the end user with an economical and safe way to maintain their vehicle on the road.

Remanufacturing also provides additional benefits on a wider scale. The CRR reports the benefits of reman to the environment can include;
Reduced raw material consumption – as reman preserves much of the material in the original product, less raw material is used than in the manufacture of new products. This is particularly beneficial where the product contains critical raw materials where there is a risk of limited supplies.
Reduced energy consumption & CO2 emissions – by limiting the amount of raw material extracted/recycled and the manufacturing of new components, remanufacturing typically uses less energy than manufacturing a new product; (around 80% less energy used versus production of new parts.) This is usually accompanied by a reduction in CO2 emissions.

Remanufactured turbocharger parts

Turbocharger remanufacturing is very popular within the aftermarket as an original turbo part can often be very costly to replace.

A professional turbo remanufacturer will carry out a ‘pre-production’ inspection of all old units to ensure that only the best turbo core is selected for reman.

Once selected, the turbo is completely dismantled and individual components thoroughly cleaned to remove dirt or debris, prior to a shot blasting treatment that returns the parts to the same visual condition as new. All parts are then individually inspected to ensure they meet the original specification and tolerances.

Then the reman process begins. Crucial parts like bearings and seals are 100% renewed, and the core assembly, turbine shaft and wheel and compressor wheel are checked according to OE specifications. After all parts are prepared, the core assembly is balanced using a balancing machine and only when a unit passes the final balancing tests is it deemed ready for final assembly.

The future of remanufacturing

It’s not just the remanufacturing industry who is benefiting, vehicle manufacturers are also exploring how the extended service life of reman products can provide many benefits, as well as providing cost effective solutions for older vehicles.

An article in The Engineer magazine highlights that a long-time leader in the field of remanufacturing has been Caterpillar Inc, the world’s biggest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment and diesel engines. Since 1973 CAT has developed a sophisticated reman business model of salvaging materials, remaking parts and offering them with the same warranty as new parts. It is currently recovering 2.2 million products, or 63,000 tonnes, through its Reman programme for remanufacturing parts.

Truck manufacturer, Isuzu has also recently announced a truck engine reman programme to assist businesses and owner-drivers with Isuzu engine replacements. The reman engines are covered by a 12-month unlimited mileage warranty, as Isuzu state their reman engines provide a premium solution that is quality-assured, cost-effective and quickly returns vehicles to the road.

It’s not just commercial and heavy plant vehicles that are embracing remanufacturing. As Automotive World reports, a handful of OEMs, including Jaguar Land Rover, have been investigating the potential for reuse and reman.

“The circular economy covers a complex and wide range of initiatives ensuring we work to make the best use of the valuable resources that go into our vehicles. This includes technological innovation – such as recycling, remanufacturing, autonomous vehicles and ownership models that consider the future mobility needs of our customers,” suggested Adrian Tautscher, Sustainable Aluminium Strategies, Jaguar Land Rover.

Renault is a trailblazer for car manufacturers across the world. It generates around half a billion euros annually from the circular economy of recycling and remanufacturing and is investigating the expansion of its European reman model into other regions of the world, including India, Brazil, Morocco and China.

So, with benefits to the consumer, manufacturers and the wider world, it looks like remanufacturing will continue to exert an increasing influence on the automotive industry, whether for passenger or commercial vehicles. Work is still needed to eliminate remaining customer negativity but as has been shown with public acceptance of recycling, such attitudinal changes are certainly possible.

 

A year on from the Volkswagen emission scandal, speculation is growing about the life-span of diesel engines, fuelled by rumours that Norway is planning to ban all diesel engine passenger cars by 2025 – with other European countries potentially following suit. So do diesel passenger cars have a future? And how realistic is it to carry out such schemes? What impact will the elimination of diesel passenger cars have on the turbo aftermarket?

CO₂ emissions impact the atmosphere and are continuously reported as a key contributor to climate change. The more recent focus on passenger car emissions has been accelerated by the Volkswagen scandal of 2015. The aftermath revealed there was a huge difference between the results of OEM laboratory tests and real-world driving emissions.

As a result, New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) legislation has been revised in line with real-world driving conditions. This has highlighted that European institutions are trying to get a better understanding of emissions from diesel and petrol  cars.

Improving air quality

In a bid to improve air quality in Norway, leading political parties have called for a ban of the sale of all diesel passenger cars by 2025. In contrast, the UK government has set policies in place to push low emission vehicles – which includes diesel passenger cars. It would be much more difficult to implement an outright ban in the UK. The population is considerably larger, with a larger diesel passenger car parc.

Despite a push on low emission vehicles, air pollution remains a hot topic in the UK. As the country prepares to leave the European Union there needs to be clarity on what is going to happen to current air pollution policies.  When the government pushed diesel cars in the early 2000’s, they knew there would be a negative effect on air pollution. But, they believed it would be vastly outweighed by the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

As technology advances, zero air pollution and zero emissions should, in hindsight, become easier to achieve. The current political focus appears to be on rectifying the current situation through the regulation of existing technology such as diesel particulate filters (DPF) or selective catalyst reduction (SCR) technology.

Benefits

There are many benefits to diesel engines. It has been well publicised that today’s diesel passenger cars are the cleanest ever, with high tech filters capturing 99% of particulates. Since the introduction of the Euro emission regulations in 1992 diesel particulate matter has reduced significantly and is currently at the same level as petrol applications at 0.005 g/km. NOx emissions have also significantly reduced and are just 0.02 grams behind petrol passenger cars.

Overall, diesel engines are more efficient to run and contain more energy per litre than petrol engines. Diesels have led the way in turbocharger technology, with petrol applications now quickly following suit. Despite these positives, the Norwegian national parliaments are committed to the ban of diesel passenger cars. They currently lead the way in electric vehicle sales due to tax exemptions, free charging points and parking benefits.

The ‘demonisation’ of diesel

Since the Volkswagen scandal diesel passenger car sales have seen a downward trend; the Group’s Audi division has seen their market share drop from 69% to 67% in the first four months of 2016. Consumer research suggests the scandal has been a major contributing factor in this downturn. Buyers are seeking out petrol applications that match the performance and fuel efficiency of their diesel counterparts, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles.

Although diesel is often in the firing line, it isn’t just these cars that create the problems; it extends to vans, buses, taxis and petrol engines too. For example, diesel road traffic is responsible for about 40 per cent of London’s NOX emissions. Government policies to reduce carbon emissions have indirectly promoted and incentivised the use of diesel over petrol. Which as lead to an increase in the number of diesel cars on the road.

With this in mind, countries calling for a ban of diesel cars need to consider other contributors to vehicle air pollution which are varied. Any new policies should consider the impact to these groups and the effect they will have on the automotive industry as a whole.

In terms of the turbo aftermarket, there are still plenty of turbochargers that will need repair. Due to the adoption of turbos on petrol applications, this will continue for many years to come.

À medida que a indústria automobilística global enfrenta escrutínio crescente após o escândalo de emissões da Volkswagen, não há dúvida de que essa revelação naturalmente terá um impacto no nosso mercado, mas em que medida?

Continuar a ler “The Future of Diesels”